World demand for primary asphalt, which is refined from crude petroleum or mined from naturally occurring sources, is projected to rise 3.6% a year to 2017 from a weak 2012 base to 121 million tonnes/year (734 million barrels), according to the ‘World Asphalt’ market report by Freedonia.
Many developing countries, particularly those in the Asia/Pacific region, will post strong growth in asphalt demand as they work to improve transportation infrastructure, claims the report. Mature asphalt markets, which saw declining demand between 2007 and 2012, will recover steadily, though in most cases 2017 asphalt demand will still be below 2007 levels.
Gains will be fuelled by especially strong growth in asphalt consumption in China and recovering demand in most developed countries. The Asia/Pacific region, which overtook North America in 2009 as the world's largest regional consumer of asphalt, is forecast to see the most rapid advances through 2017.
China is expected to post robust growth through 2017, surpassing the United States as the largest national market for asphalt worldwide, despite deceleration from near double-digit annual growth in the 2007-2012 period. India, a much smaller asphalt market than China, will also post large annual gains through 2017 that will further boost regional demand.
The massive transportation infrastructure building programs in those countries will fuel strong regional increases in asphalt demand as the region constructs new paved roads at a pace far exceeding that of any other region. Developed countries are also projected to see good gains through 2017, yet in most cases, they will not make up for the sharp contractions in asphalt consumption following the global economic recession.
North America is a major asphalt consumer because of the need for maintenance on the region's massive network of roads and highways. In addition, the US and Canada are major consumers of asphalt for roofing products; and Freedonia believes demand for those products will rise with increased annual building construction expenditures until 2017.
Japan and Western Europe experienced similar declines between 2007 and 2012. Recovery in asphalt demand in these countries will be driven, says Freedonia, by heightened expenditure on road maintenance and repair applications after years of very low spending on infrastructure improvements.
Many countries maintain backlogs of necessary road repairs, which will bolster demand for asphalt for paving applications. While the Freedonia report states that demand for asphalt will grow in both Western Europe and Japan through 2017, neither will register gains that make up for the declines exhibited in the 2007-2012 period. Asphaltic roofing products have gained market share in China, says Freedonia. Meanwhile, paving products accounted for about four-fifths of asphalt demand in 2012.
Asphalt is said in the Freedonia report to be the dominant material in the global paving segment and is favoured over concrete in most road paving applications for its noise reduction capabilities, relative speed of application, and price. On the other hand, in the global roofing market, asphalt products face competition from many other materials including clay and concrete tile, metal, and fibre cement.
While asphalt products predominate in some countries, most significantly the US and Canada, they hold only a small share in many other countries. Until 2017, Freedonia claims increasing use of modified bitumen membranes and asphalt shingles will drive gains, especially in China where asphaltic roofing products make up a growing share of the large roofing market.
This latest Freedonia industry study presents historical demand data (2002, 2007, 2012) plus forecasts (2017, 2022) for primary asphalt, asphalt products, world regions, and for 24 countries. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles industry players worldwide.
