World demand for asphalt is projected to rise 3.6% annually through 2017 from a weak 2012 base to 121 million tonnes (734 million barrels).
According to analyst Mariel Behnke: “Gains will be driven by especially strong growth in consumption in China and other developing countries as they work to improve their transportation infrastructures.”
Mature asphalt markets in developed nations, which declined between 2007-2012, will recover steadily, though in most cases demand will not regain 2007 levels until well after 2017.
Paving products accounted for about four-fifths of global asphalt demand in 2012. These and other trends are presented in World Asphalt, a new study from The Freedonia Group, a Cleveland, Ohio, USA-based industry market research group.
The Asia/Pacific region has overtaken North America as the largest regional market for asphalt and will continue to record the fastest advances through 2017, driven primarily by strong growth in China and India. China alone accounts for over 20% of the global market and is expected to surpass the US as the world’s leading asphalt consumer by 2017.
However, growth in China will decelerate as massive national infrastructure programmes give way to smaller projects and road maintenance. In contrast, India is expected to continue with large public works projects which are necessary for the country’s continued economic development. Growth is also expected to be strong in other developing Asian countries where large public works projects are planned.
North America is a major asphalt consumer due to the need for maintenance on the massive regional network of roads and highways. Demand for asphalt in the United States will rebound from the sharp declines in the 2007-2012 period, driven by stronger economic growth and increased construction activity, though demand in 2017 is expected to remain below the 2007 level. The US and Canada are significant consumers of asphalt for roofing products. Recovery in asphalt demand in Western Europe will be driven by increased expenditures on road maintenance and repair applications after years of very low spending on infrastructure improvements. Many countries have road repair backlogs, which will bolster demand for asphalt. However, while demand for asphalt will register respectable growth through 2017, gains will not make up for the declines seen in the 2007-2012 period.
